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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

Patricia continues to weaken rapidly over the mountains of central
Mexico.  Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that
the mid- to upper-level center is now displaced to the northeast of
the surface center, and there is little organized convection
associated with the cyclone.  The initial intensity is reduced to
30 kt based mainly on surface observations, and this could be
generous.  Patricia is likely to degenerate to a remnant low or
trough during the next 6-12 hours as it moves northeastward into
northeastern Mexico.

A low pressure area is developing over southern Texas, with the
system forecast to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later
in the weekend.  This system should be non-tropical in nature.
However, the low is likely to absorb the remnants of Patricia along
with the associated moisture, and this is expected to result in
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico coastal area.  Refer to statements from local National
Weather Service forecast offices for details on this system.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Even though Patricia is weakening rapidly, continued very heavy
rainfall is likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and
mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan and Guerrero through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 23.9N 101.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 26.0N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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