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HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 139.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 139.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 139.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 10.4N 140.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.1N 142.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.0N 143.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.0N 145.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 146.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 18.3N 146.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.9N 146.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 139.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OLAF.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON OLAF CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900Z UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA25 PHFO...AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/CPHC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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