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TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
1500 UTC MON SEP 28 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA
* WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  20SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 103.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.6N 102.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.8N 102.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.0N 102.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N 105.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 108.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 103.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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