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TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
1500 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO...MEXICO TO LAZARO CARDENAS...MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 100SE  20SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.4N 102.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.0N 102.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.3N 101.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.0N 102.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 102.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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