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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015

Linda is strengthening.  Satellite images indicate that banding
features have become better defined during the last several hours,
and deep convection has been persisting near the center.  The
circulation and cloud field of Linda are quite large, extending
several hundred miles across.  The Dvorak classifications at 1800
UTC have increased to 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 3.0/45 kt from SAB, and
ADT values from UW-CIMSS are around 3.4/53 kt.  Based on these
estimates, the initial wind speed is raised to 50 kt.

Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days as
the shear is expected to remain relatively light while the cyclone
is embedded within a moist air mass and over warm waters. After 48
hours, however, Linda is expected to move over progressively cooler
water and into a drier and more stable air mass.  These conditions
should end the strengthening trend, and induce a gradual weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast shows a higher peak intensity than the
previous one and leans toward the upper end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the SHIPS model.

Linda continues to move northwestward at about 9 kt on the
southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system located over
northern Mexico and the southern United States. The ridge is
expected to be nearly stationary during the next couple of days,
which should keep Linda moving northwestward at a similar or
slightly faster forward speed.  After that time, a slowdown is
predicted as the ridge weakens some and shifts westward.  The NHC
track forecast has again been shifted a little to the north of the
previous one, trending toward the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 14.8N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 16.1N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 18.0N 112.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 23.0N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 24.6N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 25.4N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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