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TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

The cyclone has become better organized on satellite pictures
tonight, with a ball of convection near the center and some banding
features.  In addition, microwave data show a better defined low-
level inner core structure.  Dvorak satellite estimates from
TAFB/SAB are both 35 kt and this will be the initial intensity.

Microwave and night visible images give an initial motion of 285/13.
The cyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer ridge
located over northern Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean, and move
generally westward along the southern periphery of the ridge for the
next 3-4 days.  By day 4, the western portion of the ridge is
forecast to weaken some as a mid-latitude trough drops southward,
steering Jimena on a west-northwestward track.  Overall, the model
guidance is just a bit faster by the end of the forecast period, and
the NHC forecast follows that trend.

There are no obvious impediments to intensification for Jimena
during the next several days, with very warm water, moist mid-level
air and little significant shear.  The statistical and global models
show a very powerful hurricane developing in a few days, and that
solution seems likely given the large-scale environment.  Thus, the
official intensity forecast has been raised from the previous one,
and the new NHC forecast is near or above the intensity consensus
throughout most of the period.  This forecast could be conservative
with the LGEM and Florida State Superensemble showing an even
stronger hurricane.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 12.3N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 12.6N 118.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 13.0N 120.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 13.2N 123.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 13.1N 125.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 13.5N 128.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 16.5N 137.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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