ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015 800 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2015 Conventional satellite imagery shows deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become better organized and increased in coverage since yesterday. Additionally, an 1852 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass indicated that the surface circulation has become sufficiently well defined. Accordingly, advisories are being initiated on the twelfth tropical depression of the 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Dvorak intensity estimates support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The cyclone is expected to traverse warm sea surface temperatures and move within a marginally conducive thermodynamic environment during the entire forecast period, resulting in only gradual intensification. Around day 4, the large-scale guidance and the SHIPS model show increasing southwesterly shear which should induce a weakening trend and this is also reflected in the official forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be at 270/3 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge extending westward to the north of the cyclone from northern Mexico should influence a generally westward motion during the next couple of days. Beyond the 48 hour period, global and hurricane models indicate a deep-layer trough weakening the ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands causing the depression to turn toward the west-northwest and continuing in this direction through day 5. The NHC forecast is based on a blend of the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) and the TVCX multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 13.1N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 13.0N 131.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 12.8N 132.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 12.8N 133.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 13.2N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 15.0N 139.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 16.6N 143.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 17.8N 146.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:45 UTC