ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015 800 PM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 The depression has lacked significant deep convection for about six hours now and is well on its way to becoming a remnant low. The initial wind speed estimate remains 25 kt for this advisory. Since the depression is over water temperatures of around 24C and well embedded in a stable air mass, significant convection is unlikely to return. Therefore, degeneration to a remnant low is expected to occur within the next 12 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate in a few days. The cyclone is moving northwestward at a fairly quick 18 kt steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level low to its southwest and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United States. A slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC official track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 24.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 25.6N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z 27.0N 128.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 28.1N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 29.3N 131.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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