ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015 200 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 There have not been many changes with the depression overnight. A small area of deep convection is lingering north of the apparent center, with the rest of the circulation looking rather stretched. A partial ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of about 30 kt, so this will be the initial intensity. The depression is moving across marginally warm waters, with shear and drier air forecast to increase notably by Tuesday. It will take some time for the large circulation to spin down within these unfavorable conditions, so the official forecast only calls for gradual weakening, in agreement with the previous forecast and the intensity consensus. Remnant low status is expected within 24 hours due to the cyclone passing over cooler waters. It is difficult to locate the center with microwave data suggesting that the circulation remains elongated from northwest to southeast, and the latest satellite fixes are roughly 100 nm apart. Thus the initial motion estimate of 310/15 is primarily based on continuity from the previous forecast. No changes to the synoptic pattern are expected with the depression lying between a mid- to upper-level low to its southwest and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United States. These features are expected to continue to steer the depression, or its remnants, west-northwestward to northwestward away from land until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one, leaning toward the GFS/ECMWF side of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 20.5N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 22.1N 122.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 23.9N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 25.2N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 26.3N 129.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z 28.0N 132.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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