ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015 The rather harsh thermodynamic atmospheric environment and decreasing sea surface temperatures continue to have a substantial effect on Felicia's cloud pattern. The cyclone's circulation consists mainly of a swirl of stable stratocumulus low clouds with a diminishing deep convective curved band displaced well to the east. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory based on a compromise of the final-T and CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB. Felicia should continue to spin down and become a remnant low either tonight or Saturday morning, with dissipation expected in 3 days or less. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/9 kt. There are no significant changes to the forecast philosophy in this advisory. As Felicia continues to weaken into a shallow system, a turn toward the west within the low-level easterly flow of the subtropical ridge is expected tonight. The NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory but nudged slightly toward the right to side with a blend of the GFEX and TVCN multi-model consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 21.7N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 22.5N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 23.3N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 23.5N 123.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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