ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015 300 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized tonight, with a curved band wrapping around the southern semicircle of the circulation. Based on the increased convective organization, the system is now classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. There is not much of an opportunity for the depression to strengthen, with moderate northerly shear expected to persist until the system crosses the 26C isotherm in about a day. As a result, the intensity guidance shows little strengthening and the NHC forecast follows this trend. However, it is possible that the cyclone could briefly reach tropical storm status even though that isn't explicitly forecast here. The cyclone should weaken to a remnant low by 48 hours due to cold waters and a dry, stable airmass. The low is forecast to dissipate by day 5. The initial motion estimate is 330/08. The depression should move northwestward around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours and then turn westward under the influence of the low-level ridge as it becomes a shallow system. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 18.0N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 20.2N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 21.3N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 22.1N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:40 UTC