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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015

Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate and the
upper-level outflow has become poorly defined. The area of deep
convection has shrunk while the low-level center remains located on
the southern edge of the thunderstorm activity.  The latest Dvorak
estimates support lowering the initial intensity to 35 kt. Enrique
is already over relatively cool waters and additional weakening is
forecast, with the system becoming a remnant low by 48 hours. In
fact, the SHIPS model, as well as the intensity model consensus,
dissipate the cyclone in 36 hours or so.

Enrique is still moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees
at 7 knots. However, the narrow ridge to the north is forecast to
weaken in a day or two and the steering currents are expected to
collapse. This steering pattern will likely keep Enrique and its
remnants moving slowly toward the west-northwest or west,
accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, until dissipation
occurs in 4 or 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 19.0N 133.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 19.5N 134.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 20.3N 135.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 20.7N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 20.6N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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