ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 The center is now embedded within the deep convection, which, in fact, has increased during the past several hours. The upper-level outflow has also expanded westward and became better defined. Consequently, the Dvorak numbers are a little higher at 1200 UTC. Data from ASCAT indicate that the cyclone's intensity is 40 kt, and these winds are confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. Enrique is now crossing a small tongue of warm waters, and this probably caused the slight increase in organization. Soon, the circulation will move over cooler waters, and on this basis, the NHC forecast calls for little change in strength today with a gradual weakening thereafter. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 hours or sooner. The best estimate of the initial motion is 305/8 kt. The cyclone is is forecast to continue on a track between the northwest and the west-northwest during the next couple of days, steered by the flow to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. In about 3 days, these steering currents are forecast to collapse due to the approach of the larger circulation of Dolores, and most likely, Enrique will meander until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.3N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.7N 131.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.5N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 20.0N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 20.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z 20.3N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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