ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Dolores is producing a patch of deep convection to the west and northwest of its low-level center. The maximum winds continue to decrease, and the advisory intensity is set at 50 kt based on a blend of the decreasing Dvorak CI numbers. A 1656 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed a swath of 40-45 kt winds northwest of the center, and given the instrument's resolution, it is possible that a small area of 50-kt winds could still be occurring within the deep convection. Colder water and increasing shear in the next 24-48 hours are expected to lead to further steady weakening, and Dolores is forecast to become a tropical depression by 36 hours and a remnant low by day 3. The official intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus. However, the recent rate of weakening has been faster than expected, and Dolores could become a remnant low sooner than shown below. Dolores appears to have jogged westward today, and the longer-term motion is 285/9 kt. The cyclone will be approaching the western periphery of the subtropical ridge during the next day or so, which will cause it to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by 48 hours. Once Dolores becomes a remnant low, weak low-level steering should cause it to become nearly stationary on day 4 well southwest of the southern California coast. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly eastward, but still lies west of the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 21.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 21.9N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 23.3N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 25.2N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 27.5N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 30.6N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z 31.0N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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