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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
900 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015

Dolores has continued to become better organized during the past
several hours.  Microwave imagery indicates that a mid-level eye
has formed, and first-light visible images are showing a hint of
eye development as well.  The initial intensity is increased to 75
kt based on a combination of subjective Dvorak Technique and AMSU
intensity estimates.

After its earlier westward turn, Dolores has resumed a
west-northwestward motion of 290/6.  The hurricane is currently
being steered by a low- to mid-level level ridge over northern
Mexico.  The dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen
during the next 48 hours of so, which should cause the storm to
move a bit faster toward the west-northwest.  After 96 hours, the
ridge should weaken as a trough moves southward along the coast of
California.  This evolution should allow Dolores to turn
northwestward by 120 hours.  The new forecast track is similar
to, but a little faster than, the previous forecast.  It lies near
the center of the guidance envelope through 96 hours and a little
left of the center of the envelope at 120 hours.

Dolores should continue to intensify through the next 36-48 hours
in an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear, with
the biggest question being how strong will it get. The official
intensity forecast during this time follows the SHIPS model, which
is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index shows a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt
increase in intensity during the next 24 hours, so the current
intensity forecast could be conservative.  Regardless of the actual
peak intensity, the cyclone should start a steady weakening trend
after 48 hours as it encounters cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 17.7N 108.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 18.0N 108.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 18.5N 109.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 19.0N 110.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 19.7N 111.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 22.5N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 25.5N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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