ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 The cloud pattern of Dolores has become a little better organized this evening, with slightly more defined convective banding features over the eastern semicircle of the storm. The current intensity is increased to 50 kt, which is just a bit above the latest Dvorak estimates. The tropical cyclone will be traversing very warm waters with abundant mid-level moisture over the next day or so, and the only obvious impediment to strengthening should be moderate vertical shear. The shear is not expected to be a strong inhibitor for intensification, however. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM guidance and is very similar to the previous NHC forecast and shows Dolores strengthening close to major hurricane status. Weakening should commence later in the forecast period, when the cyclone nears 20N latitude and the sea surface temperatures begin to cool significantly. The initial motion, 300/10 kt, is about the same as in the previous advisory. Most of the track guidance shows a continued west-northwestward motion, albeit almost northwest at times, throughout the forecast period. A mid-tropospheric ridge to the north and northeast of Dolores is forecast by the global models to weaken over the next few days. This should cause a decrease in the forward speed of the tropical cyclone. Near the end of the forecast period, Dolores is expected to accelerate a bit as the ridge to the north builds back in. The official track forecast lies roughly in the middle of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.2N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 17.1N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 17.4N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 17.8N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.0N 110.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 20.4N 112.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.4N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:37 UTC