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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...CARLOS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT
OR ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 100.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 100.7 West. Carlos is
moving toward the northwest near 4 mph (7 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn toward the
west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Carlos is expected to become a hurricane again by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area today.  Hurricane conditions are expected to
begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Monday night
or early Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with
maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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