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Hurricane CARLOS (Text)


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HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.3 West.  Carlos is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days.
However, only a small deviation to the northeast of the forecast
track would bring Carlos closer to the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected during the next 24
hours, but weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Carlos remains a tiny hurricane.  Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through Wednesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area through this evening.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango,
and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible
through Thursday morning.  Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches
are also possible.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2015 12:09:34 UTC