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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM CARLOS HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 101.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has extended the hurricane watch
northwestward to Playa Perula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-
storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 101.3 West. Carlos is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. A
small deviation to the north of the track would bring the core of
Carlos closer to the coast.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, but only a small increase in intensity would bring Carlos to
hurricane status again.

Carlos is small cyclone. Tropical storm force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area on Monday.  Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area Monday night or early Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday and
maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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