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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
0900 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.2W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 100.2W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 100.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.1N 100.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 101.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  70SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 102.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.8N 105.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 100.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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