ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015 900 PM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015 Blanca's eye remains well defined, but the surrounding cloud-top temperatures have continued to warm. There has also been some erosion of the convective canopy on the southeastern side of the hurricane, suggesting that vertical shear is increasing. Despite the slightly worse satellite presentation, Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are the same as six hours ago, which supports maintaining an initial intensity of 105 kt. Data T-numbers are decreasing, however, and Blanca will likely begin weakening soon due to the increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. The intensity models all weaken Blanca, but they do so at different rates. The SHIPS model appears to weaken the cyclone a little too fast, showing dissipation in 48 hours. On the other hand, the GFS--which seems to have been handling Blanca's intensity trends quite well--shows a much slower rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is therefore a little higher than the intensity consensus (IVCN) between 12-48 hours, lying closest to the LGEM. Blanca should degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours and then dissipate by 96 hours, if not sooner. Blanca has turned north-northwestward, or 330 degrees at 9 kt. This motion is expected to continue until dissipation as Blanca moves between a mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and a deep-layer trough extending from the western U.S. southwestward over the Pacific. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, with only a slight westward shift noted at 48 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is just a little bit slower than the previous forecast in order to fall closer to the TVCE multi-model consensus. The updated forecast does not require any changes to the watches or warnings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 19.2N 110.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 20.4N 110.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 22.4N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 24.6N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 26.4N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 29.9N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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