ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
900 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

Blanca appears to have become a little better organized during the
past few hours.  The eye does not look quite as ragged although it
is becoming more cloud filled.  Deep convection is doing a better
job of wrapping around the eye, but there is still some asymmetry
with very intense convection occurring within the southeastern
quadrant.  As a result, Dvorak estimates have risen to T5.5/102 kt
from TAFB and T5.0/90 kt from SAB.  However, since the Hurricane
Hunters found Blanca's intensity to be on the low end of the earlier
satellite estimates, the maximum winds are conservatively raised to
85 kt on this advisory.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/9 kt.  Mid-level
high pressure over northern Mexico should keep Blanca moving
northwestward in the short term, but the hurricane is forecast to
turn north-northwestward in 24 hours due to a shortwave trough
approaching from the west.  This north-northwestward motion should
then continue until dissipation, bringing Blanca near or over the
southern Baja California peninsula in 48-72 hours.  The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, with varying speeds being the
main issue, and the official track forecast is near the various
multi-model consensus models.

If Blanca is going to strengthen any further, it probably only has
another 24 hours to do so while vertical shear is low and sea
surface temperatures are over 26C.  After 24 hours, a more hostile
environment should lead to fairly quick weakening, with Blanca
becoming a tropical storm between 36-48 hours while it approaches
the southern Baja California peninsula.  The cyclone is then
expected to become a tropical depression by day 3 and dissipate
over the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula between days
4 and 5.  The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS
and LGEM models and is not much different from the previous
forecast.

Based on the latest forecast, a tropical storm warning would likely
be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula
Saturday morning.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 16.1N 108.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 17.1N 109.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 20.1N 110.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 21.9N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 25.5N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 28.4N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN