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HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
200 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Andres appears to have peaked in intensity during the early evening
hours.  Since that time, the eye has become obscured in infrared
satellite imagery and the cloud pattern has become somewhat less
symmetric. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB have
decreased, and based on recent satellite trends the initial
intensity has been lowered to 90 kt.

The initial motion estimate is northwest or 305 degrees at 6 kt.
Andres is forecast to turn west-northwestward today as a mid-level
ridge to the north of the hurricane strengthens. A west-
northwestward motion should then continue during the next couple of
days.  By 72 hours, a deepening mid-latitude trough is forecast to
approach the west coast of the United States.  The dynamical models
that maintain a stronger tropical cyclone, turn Andres northward and
northeastward ahead of the trough.  The GFDL and ECMWF which depict
a weaker Andres, show a continued west-northwestward track in the
low- to mid-level easterly flow.  The NHC forecast continues to lean
toward the latter solution, but shows a slower forward motion at
days 4 and 5 than the previous advisory.

Although moderate west-northwesterly shear that is currently
over Andres is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours, the
hurricane will be moving over cool water which should cause a
gradual reduction in intensity.  A faster rate of weakening is
expected to begin in 36 to 48 hours after the cyclone moves over
waters less than 26C and into a drier and more stable environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 15.4N 117.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 15.8N 118.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 16.3N 119.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 16.8N 120.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 19.0N 125.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 19.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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