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HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
200 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 65.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Warning
with a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 65.5 West.  Joaquin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn
toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next
48 hours.  On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will move
away from Bermuda today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).  A sustained wind speed of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a
gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) were reported at the Bermuda International
Airport within the past hour.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda
overnight, with possible gusts to near hurricane force.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in Bermuda through early morning.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next day or so.  Swells are affecting
much of the east coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the coast of Atlantic Canada during the next day or
two.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Even though Joaquin is passing well east of the
coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water
levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing
significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding
likely. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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