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HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

...SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 70.9W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. For Bermuda, the
tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Joaquin was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 70.9 West. Joaquin has increased
its forward speed, and it is now moving toward the northeast near 18
mph (30 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight.
A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday. On the
forecast track, the eye of Joaquin will pass west of Bermuda on
Sunday. However, a small deviation to the east of the forecast track
would bring the core of the hurricane and stronger winds closer to
Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Joaquin is a strong category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  A gradual weakening should
begin later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda
by Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions possible by Sunday
afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over the Bahamas, eastern Cuba,
Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
through today. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 25 inches are
possible in the central Bahamas. Outer rain bands of Joaquin will
begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to
produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. This
rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the east coast of the United States through the
weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda today and
continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though
Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United
States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves
will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and
dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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