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HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

...POWERFUL HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 72.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued all watches and
warnings for the Bahamas and for the Turk and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. For Bermuda, the
tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Joaquin was located
by a reconnaissance plane near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 72.5
West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h),
and this motion is expected to continue through tonight with an
increase in forward speed. A turn toward the north-northeast is
forecast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin
will continue to move away from the Bahamas today, and pass west of
Bermuda on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast to begin later
today, followed by steadier weakening Sunday and Sunday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Gusty winds will continue to affect portions of the central
and southeastern Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
first expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday morning, with hurricane
conditions possible by Sunday afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels should slowly subside today as Joaquin
moves away from the Bahamas.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over the Bahamas, eastern Cuba,
Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
through today. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 25 inches are
possible in the central Bahamas. Outer rain bands of Joaquin will
begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to
produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. This
rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the east coast of the United States through the
weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda today and
continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though
Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United
States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves
will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and
dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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