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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

...JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS WHERE CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 73.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
Caicos Islands
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. For Bermuda, the
tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 73.1 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through tonight with an increase in forward
speed. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will continue to move away
from the Bahamas today, and pass west of Bermuda on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast to begin later
today, followed by steadier weakening Sunday and Sunday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of
the central and southeastern Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday morning,
with hurricane conditions possible by Sunday afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Water levels should slowly subside today as Joaquin moves away from
the Bahamas.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over the Bahamas, eastern Cuba,
Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
through today. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 25 inches are
possible in the central Bahamas. Outer rain bands of Joaquin will
begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to
produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. This
rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the east coast of the United States through the
weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda today and
continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though
Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United
States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves
will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and
dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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