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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

...JOAQUIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 74.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued all watches and
warnings for the northwestern Bahamas.

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
and a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
Caicos Islands
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. For Bermuda, the
tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 74.0 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion should continue with a gradual increase in forward speed
during the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the core of the
strongest winds of Joaquin will continue to move away from the
Bahamas.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
plane was 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions
of the central Bahamas for the next several hours.  Tropical storm
conditions will continue to affect portions of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next several
hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda on Sunday.

STORM SURGE:  A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow.  A storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves. Water levels should begin to subside overnight and on
Saturday as Joaquin moves away from the Bahamas.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over the Bahamas, eastern
Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos
Islands through Saturday. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of
25 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. Outer rain bands of
Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is
expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through
Monday. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will
spread northward along the east coast of the United States through
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged
period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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