ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

...JOAQUIN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS THE EYE PASSES NEAR SAN SALVADOR
ISLAND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 74.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
Caicos Islands
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 74.7 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight,
with a northeastward motion continuing through Sunday.   On the
forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will
continue moving over portions of the central and northwestern
Bahamas for a few more hours, then move away from the Bahamas later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some slow weakening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).   A
Bahamas Meteorology Department station on San Salvador recently
reported a pressure of 944.3 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions
of the central Bahamas for the next several hours.  Hurricane and
tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas tonight.  Tropical storm conditions will affect
portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Bermuda on Sunday.

STORM SURGE:  A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow.  A storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
amounts of 25 inches.  Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are
expected over the southeastern Bahamas, northwestern Bahamas,
eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash
floods.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will
spread northward along the east coast of the United States through
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged
period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN