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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...JOAQUIN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 73.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island and Bimini.

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but
excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island and Bimini

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but
excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 73.1 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday.  A turn toward the
northwest and north is expected Thursday night and Friday.  The
center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the
central Bahamas tonight and Thursday, and near or over portions of
the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Joaquin could become a major hurricane by Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Central Bahamas by early Thursday morning.  Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight.  Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of
the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over the
northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas.  Isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas.  This
rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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