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TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  45.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT  30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 140SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 210SE 240SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  45.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N  47.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 41.8N  39.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 180SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 300SE 300SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 42.6N  32.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.5N  26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 44.2N  21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 43.5N  15.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...180NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 42.5N  11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N  45.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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