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HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS
* BERMUDA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR BERMUDA...THE
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  74.0W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  45SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE  90SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  74.0W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  74.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.7N  72.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.9N  70.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 30.4N  68.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  50SE  45SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.0N  67.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  90SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N  64.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 220NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 41.5N  54.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 46.5N  40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N  74.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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