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HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI
* ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LOS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOAQUIN. A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  74.7W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  935 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 150SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  74.7W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  74.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.9N  74.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.4N  74.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.4N  72.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 30.0N  70.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.8N  69.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 160SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 39.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 43.5N  54.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N  74.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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