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TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOAQUIN.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS LATER
THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  71.0W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  71.0W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  70.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.8N  71.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.1N  73.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.8N  73.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 29.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 34.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N  71.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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