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HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  37...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015

CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED TO 20 KT IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

Joaquin continues to have a very impressive cloud pattern with an
intermittent eye on visible images. In fact, microwave data still
shows a distinct eye feature surrounded by convective bands. Dvorak
T-numbers have not changed today, and given the currently well-
organized cloud pattern, the initial intensity is kept at 70 kt.
Both cold sea surface temperatures and strong shear should
cause Joaquin to begin losing tropical characteristics between 24
and 36 hours, and after that time, the hurricane is forecast to
become a strong extratropical cyclone.

Joaquin is fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and
is racing toward the east-northeast at about 20 kt.  Track guidance
is tightly packed, showing Joaquin moving on the same general track
for the next few days with some increase in forward speed.  However,
Joaquin should decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast
period.  The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model
consensus, and very near the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 39.0N  56.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 40.4N  51.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 42.0N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 43.0N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/1800Z 44.0N  28.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/1800Z 46.5N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1800Z 48.0N  13.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1800Z 49.0N  10.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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