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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015

Ida is very disorganized this morning.  Visible satellite images
indicate that the circulation of the depression is becoming
elongated from north to south, though the low-level center is
still distinct.  Deep convection is scattered and not organized,
and this system is barely classifiable using Dvorak metrics.  The
initial intensity remains 25 kt.

The cyclone is embedded in a dry atmosphere, which is likely
the reason why convection is limited.  In addition, the interaction
with a cold front about 350 n mi to the north of Ida is causing the
circulation to become stretched as described above.  Since the
frontal boundary is expected to move closer to Ida during the next
day or so before stalling, it is possible that Ida could open up
into a trough during that time.  It is also possible that Ida could
become a remnant low by then if organized deep convection does not
return.  Based on the negative factors for the tropical cyclone,
prediction of when Ida becomes a remnant low and dissipates have
been moved up 24 hours from the previous advisory, and these could
occur much sooner than forecast.

Ida has jogged a bit to the north recently, but a long-term motion
is west-northwestward at about 5 kt.  A turn to the west-southwest
is expected later today, followed by a faster westward motion
tomorrow and Tuesday as a low to mid-level ridge builds to the north
of the cyclone. The track guidance has changed little this cycle,
and only small changes were made to the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 24.8N  48.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 24.4N  49.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 23.9N  51.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 23.8N  53.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 24.1N  55.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 25.0N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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