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TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015

Henri has changed little in organization during the past several
hours.  The system continues to have some characteristics of a
subtropical cyclone, with the convective banding and strongest
winds well away from the center in the northeastern semicircle.
The initial intensity remains 35 kt, as there has been no new
scatterometer data from the area where the strongest winds are
likely occurring.

The initial motion is northward or 005/12.  Henri should accelerate
and turn to the northeast during the next 48 hours as it enters the
mid-latitude westerlies.  After that time, a quick eastward motion
is expected until the cyclone dissipates.  The new track forecast
is an update of the previous forecast and is just to the right of
the various consensus models.

The vertical wind shear over Henri is diminishing, so there is a
chance that the system could intensify a little before reaching cold
water north of the Gulf Stream in about 18 hours.  After that, the
system should begin extratropical transition as it merges with a
frontal system, and this process is expected to be complete in about
36 hours.  The cyclone is likely to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical system between 72-96 hours.  An alternative scenario
is that Henri could degenerate to a trough between 24-72 hours as
indicated by several of the global models.

The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be
post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 34.8N  60.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 37.5N  60.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 41.2N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 44.9N  54.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/0000Z 47.6N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/0000Z 48.0N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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