ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
last several hours.  The system remains sheared with the low-level
center located to the west of the main area of deep convection.
The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt based on the steady
state nature of the system since the earlier scatterometer data.
The current shear of about 20 kt from the west-southwest is expected
to continue through the day, therefore, only slow strengthening is
expected during that time.  The shear is anticipated to lessen in
24-48 hours, which could provide a better opportunity for
strengthening before the cyclone crosses the north wall of the Gulf
Stream current in 2-3 days.  The cyclone is expected to lose
tropical characteristics by 72 hours when it is forecast to be over
sea surface temperatures below 20 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the
guidance.

The depression has been nearly stationary since the previous
advisory.  A northward motion is expected to begin later today and
then increase in forward speed during the next couple of days as a
deep layer trough moves eastward toward the system.  The cyclone is
forecast to become embedded in strong mid-latitude flow in a few
days, causing it to accelerate and turn northeastward and then
eastward. Only small changes were made to the previous track
forecast, and it lies near the consensus aids.  The latter part of
the track forecast excludes the GFS, which dissipates the system
before it becomes extratropical.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 30.9N  61.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 31.3N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 32.5N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 34.7N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 37.7N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 44.5N  56.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/0600Z 48.5N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/0600Z 48.0N  22.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN