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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
500 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015

...ERIKA A LITTLE STRONGER...CENTER PASSING BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND
ANTIGUA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 61.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevisis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 61.5 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion
should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward
Islands this morning, move near the Virgin Islands later today,
move near or north of Puerto Rico tonight, and pass north of the
north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the
warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning, and reach the
Virgin Islands later today and Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands
this morning. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the
watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday and the southeastern
Bahamas, and Turks and the Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday
night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turk and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas
through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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