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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* MONTSERRAT
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  57.6W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  57.6W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  56.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N  59.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.6N  63.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.7N  65.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N  68.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N  73.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 24.4N  77.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  57.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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