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HURRICANE DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANNY.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  49.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  49.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  48.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.0N  50.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.5N  52.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N  55.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.3N  57.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.5N  62.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.5N  71.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N  49.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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