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HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

Danny's cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast with the
low-level center estimated to be on the southwestern side of that
feature due to southwesterly shear.  Some fragmented curved bands
exist on the north side of the circulation as well. The initial wind
speed is lowered to 85 kt, but this could be generous as it
is slightly above the Dvorak CI-numbers.  NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Unit reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate Danny this
afternoon and should provide a better estimate of its intensity.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  A turn
to the west with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin
later today when the subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone
builds westward and strengthens.  This general motion is expected
to persist for the next several days taking Danny across the
Leeward Islands in 2 to 3 days, and near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
in 3 to 4 days.  The track model guidance remains in good
agreement, and the only change made to the previous forecast was a
slight northward adjustment at the latter forecast points.

Strong southwesterly winds aloft and a stable air mass are expected
to cause Danny to continue losing strength during the next several
days. In addition, the potential land interaction with the Greater
Antilles could contribute to the weakening. Although the guidance
agrees on the overall trend, there remains a significant discrepancy
between the dynamical and statistical model solutions on the
weakening rate. The GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models show Danny weakening
quickly and opening up into a trough over the eastern Caribbean.
Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show a slower decay.  The NHC
intensity forecast is between these scenarios and is in best
agreement with the intensity model consensus.

Based on the current forecast, tropical storm watches will likely be
required later today for portions of the Leeward Islands and the
Virgin Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 15.2N  50.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 15.4N  52.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 15.8N  55.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 16.3N  57.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 16.8N  60.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 18.1N  64.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 19.7N  69.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 21.0N  74.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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