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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015
500 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015

Claudette remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the center
located to the south of a new burst of deep convection that has
developed overnight.  Satellite intensity estimates suggest that
the tropical cyclone has weakened slightly, so the initial
intensity has been lowered to 40 kt.  Claudette will be crossing
the north wall of the Gulf Stream and over much colder waters this
morning.  The unfavorable SSTs and strong southwesterly shear
should cause Claudette to lose its tropical characteristics later
today.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate as it
approaches or moves over Newfoundland on Wednesday.

The initial motion estimate is 050/17 kt.  The cyclone is expected
to move between northeast and north-northeast within deep-layer
southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic.  The new NHC forecast
is essentially an update of the previous advisory, and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 40.1N  63.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 41.9N  61.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 45.0N  58.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  15/1800Z 48.0N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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