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TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Tropical Storm Bill is nearing the central Texas coast just south of
Port O'Connor, and the cyclone should move inland shortly. Although
the satellite presentation isn't terribly impressive, NOAA Doppler
radar data and SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind reports from
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft support an intensity of
50 kt.  After Bill makes landfall, steady weakening will begin as
the cyclone moves farther inland over Texas, although the GFS
suggests that baroclinic forcing will help maintain the
post-tropical remnants as a distinct entity for a few days.

The initial motion estimate is 305/09 kt. Bill is expected to move
around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high
located over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two. By
48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to get caught up in the
mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a turn and acceleration to the
northeastward to east-northeast. The global and regional models are
in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is
very similar to the previous advisory track and a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF models.

Although the storm's strongest winds are located very close to the
center, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are occurring
well away from the center.  The main hazard from Bill is expected to
be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and
eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two.  Please see products from
your local National Weather Service office for more information on
the flood threat.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 28.2N  96.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 29.7N  97.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 31.6N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0000Z 33.4N  97.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  18/1200Z 34.9N  96.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  19/1200Z 36.8N  92.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  20/1200Z 39.3N  87.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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