| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane VANCE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
100 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

...VANCE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 110.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST.  VANCE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF VANCE IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND VANCE COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF
SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...400 AM PST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NNNN