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Tropical Storm VANCE (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
200 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014

Vance appears to be gradually organizing in satellite imagery. The
central convection has increased a bit over the past few hours, and
convective banding has also increased in coverage. However,
satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged, and the initial
intensity remains 40 kt. The increase in convective coverage is
consistent with a gradual moistening of the near-storm environment
as seen in the SHIPS model analyses, and conditions appear conducive
for gradual strengthening during the next 48 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and shows Vance
reaching hurricane status in about 2 days. After that time, the
shear increases dramatically, which should result in quick weakening
to remnant low status by day 4. The NHC prediction is close to the
Decay-SHIPS model and a little above the intensity consensus through
the period.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11, as Vance is feeling the
effects of a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north. Vance
should move generally west-northwestward through 24 hours and then
turn northward by 48 hours as it moves between the ridge and an
amplifying mid/upper-level trough digging southward over the
southwestern United States and Baja California. Late in the period,
a weakening Vance is expected to turn north-northeastward as the
cyclone decouples in the strong shear, leaving a remnant low
drifting erratically by the end of the forecast period. The guidance
has trended faster in the short term this cycle, and generally shows
a broader recurvature through 48 hours. The NHC forecast has been
trended in that direction, but lies a little east of the multi-model
consensus at 36 and 48 hours. After that time, the spread in the
guidance increases. The ECMWF and UKMET models both show Vance
interacting to some degree with a disturbance moving northward
around the eastern side of the tropical cyclone. In particular, the
ECMWF shows Vance weakening and then merging with the other system,
resulting in a track far to the south of the rest of the models. The
GFS remains farther north and east, but shows a westward turn by day
5. The NHC forecast late in the period has been slowed down and
shows the remnant low meandering between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo
Corrientes at days 4 and 5. However, this forecast is east of the
multi-model consensus out of respect for continuity, and confidence
in the details of the track forecast late in the period is quite
low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 10.1N 104.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 10.8N 106.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 12.0N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 13.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 15.2N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 18.7N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 21.5N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 22.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:10:03 UTC