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Tropical Storm TRUDY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
COMPLETEL
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...RADAR FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED ON THE COAST NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
TRUDY INLAND LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INLAND...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA NOW.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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