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Hurricane SIMON (Text)

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014

...SIMON BECOMES THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 111.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON MOVED VERY CLOSE TO SOCORRO ISLAND
...MEXICO A FEW HOURS AGO...AND AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC..IS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

SIMON IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM. A MEXICAN
NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...80 KM/HR AND A GUST TO 69 MPH...112
KM/HR A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN SIMON PASSED NEAR THAT ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 15 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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