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Hurricane RACHEL (Text)

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HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

Although Rachel's cloud pattern is still fairly circular on
satellite images, the area of deepest convection has been gradually
shrinking.  The imagery also suggests increasing southwesterly
shear, with high clouds extending farther to the northeast of the
cyclone with time.  Dvorak intensity estimates remain at 65 kt from
both TAFB and SAB, so the initial wind speed also remains at that
value.  Rachel is not likely to remain a hurricane much longer
since the global models show that southwesterly shear will persist
and increase over the next day or two.  Steady weakening is
forecast, and the official intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one and very close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN.
The cyclone is expected to degenerate to remnant low status in a
couple of days.

Microwave imagery indicates that the center of circulation is
displaced a little to the south of the center of the cloud mass.
Blending microwave and geostationary satellite fixes yields an
initial motion of about 360/4 kt.  With the system forecast to
become increasingly shallow over the next few days, it will likely
be steered by the weak low- to mid-level flow, and decelerate even
further.  Thus, Rachel is not expected to move much over the next
day or so.  By the latter part of the forecast period, the
post-tropical remnant low should move southwestward to
west-southwestward, following the tradewind flow.  The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and is similar to the
latest ECMWF global model prediction.

Only slight adjustments to the wind radii were made, based on data
from a couple of recent ASCAT overpasses.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 22.8N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 23.1N 117.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 23.3N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 23.2N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0600Z 22.8N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/0600Z 22.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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