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Tropical Storm POLO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...CENTER OF POLO PASSING SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 106.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA IN MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF COLIMA...NAYARIT AND JALISCO STATES IN
MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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